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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mlada Boleslav and Baník Ostrava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 9, as Mlada Boleslav and Baník Ostrava drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.36 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.62 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.09 / defence 1.53 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 31% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 42%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 67%, Baník Ostrava 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights