Karviná 4-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Karviná at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and České Budějovice meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's home record at Městský Stadión: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský Stadión.
České Budějovice have collected 0.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 1D 9L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Karviná's 1.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of České Budějovice's 0.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Karviná lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Karviná winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Karviná — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 49% versus České Budějovice 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 55% | České Budějovice 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.34 xG and České Budějovice 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.685 / defence 0.831 | České Budějovice attack 0.752 / defence 1.478. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.247. Karviná's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.478 — this is suppressing Karviná's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Karviná games / 40 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 48% | Draw 32% | České Budějovice 20%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | České Budějovice 5.00. Karviná hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Karviná as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Karviná 40% | České Budějovice 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 48% | Draw 32% | České Budějovice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Karviná 1.34 / České Budějovice 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.685 / def 0.831 | České Budějovice attack 0.752 / def 1.478 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Karviná (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
0.78
České Budějovice xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs České Budějovice kick off?
Karviná vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Karviná 4 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Karviná vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs České Budějovice part of?
Karviná vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 48% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Karviná and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and České Budějovice?
Record (5 meetings): Karviná 2W | Draws 1 | České Budějovice 2W.
What form are Karviná and České Budějovice in?
Karviná (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. České Budějovice (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Karviná's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.75x) against Karviná's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
48%
2.08
32%
3.09
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.12
0.78
České Budějovice xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Karviná and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Karviná and 0.78 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Karviná's recent record stands at 13W 11D 23L from 47 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 29L across 47 games — 0.72 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Karviná against 0.72 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 6W 7D 10L from 23 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 0W 6D 17L across 23 trips, a 0.26 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karviná come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 0.98 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 13W 11D 23L in their last 47 games (1.06 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 8W 10D 29L in their last 47 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or České Budějovice away?
Karviná's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.09 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Karviná have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won 4-1 on 20 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Karviná
1
Draws
2
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and České Budějovice?
From 7 meetings on record, Karviná have won 4, České Budějovice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when České Budějovice 2-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and České Budějovice?
Karviná have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 44%, České Budějovice 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Karviná) and 65% (České Budějovice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Karviná have failed to score in 39% of games; České Budějovice in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Karviná's recent matches and 61% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Karviná's matches and 65% of České Budějovice's.
Do Karviná and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Karviná run riot with a 4-1 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat České Budějovice 4-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.34 xG and České Budějovice 0.78 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.69 / defence 0.83 against České Budějovice attack 0.75 / defence 1.48, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 48% | Draw 32% | České Budějovice 20%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 55%, České Budějovice 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.06 PPG, České Budějovice 0.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm. České Budějovice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.