Karviná 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Městský Stadión to face Karviná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Karviná have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Městský Stadión, Karviná have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský Stadión.
Teplice (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Teplice have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Karviná, 1.50 for Teplice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Karviná 1W, Teplice 2W, 3D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 3–1 with Karviná winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 53% versus Teplice 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 57% | Teplice 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.30 xG and Teplice 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.884 / defence 0.899 | Teplice attack 0.864 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.218. Data: 49 Karviná games / 49 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 44% | Draw 31% | Teplice 26%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Teplice 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 50% | Teplice 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 44% | Draw 31% | Teplice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Karviná 1.30 / Teplice 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.884 / def 0.899 | Teplice attack 0.864 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Karviná (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Teplice xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Teplice kick off?
Karviná vs Teplice kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Teplice?
Karviná 1 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Karviná vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Teplice part of?
Karviná vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 44% chance of winning, Teplice a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Karviná and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Teplice?
Record (6 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 3 | Teplice 2W.
What form are Karviná and Teplice in?
Karviná (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.88x the league average against Teplice's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.86x) against Karviná's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
44%
2.30
31%
3.28
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.25
0.95
Teplice xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
7%
14.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Karviná and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Karviná and 0.95 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Karviná have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 15W 13D 25L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 17W 12D 24L from 53 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Karviná against 1.19 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Karviná have posted 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 7W 4D 15L from 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.09 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Teplice in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 15W 13D 25L in their last 53 games (1.09 PPG), while Teplice have gone 17W 12D 24L in their last 53 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Teplice away?
Karviná's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.31 PPG; Teplice away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won 4-1 on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Karviná
4
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Teplice?
From 9 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Teplice have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Teplice 2-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 46%, Teplice 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karviná) and 58% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Karviná have failed to score in 35% of games; Teplice in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Karviná's recent matches and 54% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karviná's recent games and 58% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Teplice tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Teplice in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná and Teplice finished level at 1-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.30 xG and Teplice 0.95 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Teplice attack 0.86 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 44% | Draw 31% | Teplice 26%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 57%, Teplice 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.09 PPG, Teplice 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.