🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Karviná at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Teplice make the trip to Městský Stadión to face Karviná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Karviná have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Městský Stadión, Karviná have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský Stadión.

Teplice (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Teplice have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Karviná, 1.50 for Teplice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Karviná 1W, Teplice 2W, 3D.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 3–1 with Karviná winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 53% versus Teplice 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 57% | Teplice 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.30 xG and Teplice 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.884 / defence 0.899 | Teplice attack 0.864 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.218. Data: 49 Karviná games / 49 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Karviná 44% | Draw 31% | Teplice 26%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Teplice 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 50% | Teplice 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights