🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Slovan Liberec (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Karviná face Slovan Liberec.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Karviná and Slovan Liberec meet at Town Stadium Karvina in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Karviná have posted 3W 2D 5L at Town Stadium Karvina — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Karviná are significantly better at Town Stadium Karvina than their overall form suggests.

Slovan Liberec (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slovan Liberec are 0.80 PPG clear of Karviná in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to Slovan Liberec, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–6 with Slovan Liberec winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slovan Liberec have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 4.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 61% versus Slovan Liberec 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 64% | Slovan Liberec 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.03 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.836 / defence 1.237 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.002 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.205. Data: 57 Karviná games / 57 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Karviná 25% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 46%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Slovan Liberec 2.17. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 70% | Slovan Liberec 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights