Karviná 2-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský Stadión plays host to Karviná versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Městský Stadión this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský Stadión.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Sigma Olomouc hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sigma Olomouc have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 46% versus Sigma Olomouc 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 52% | Sigma Olomouc 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.19 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.886 / defence 0.850 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.102 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.248. Data: 42 Karviná games / 42 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 35% | Draw 32% | Sigma Olomouc 34%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Sigma Olomouc 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Karviná as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Karviná 40% | Sigma Olomouc 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 35% | Draw 32% | Sigma Olomouc 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Karviná 1.19 / Sigma Olomouc 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.886 / def 0.850 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.102 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Karviná (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sigma Olomouc xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Karviná 2 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 35% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Karviná and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (4 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 0 | Sigma Olomouc 4W.
What form are Karviná and Sigma Olomouc in?
Karviná (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Karviná's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.10x) against Karviná's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
35%
2.89
32%
3.15
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.36
1.17
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Karviná and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Karviná and 1.17 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karviná come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 11D 20L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.27 PPG from 44 outings (15W 11D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Karviná against 1.27 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Karviná's home form reads 7W 6D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karviná are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.36 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 13W 11D 20L in their last 44 games (1.14 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Karviná's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.23 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sigma Olomouc go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 23 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Karviná
2
Draws
6
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 41%, Sigma Olomouc 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karviná) and 50% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Karviná have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Karviná's recent matches and 68% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karviná's recent games and 50% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karviná edge out Sigma Olomouc 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.19 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.17 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.89 / defence 0.85 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.10 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 35% | Draw 32% | Sigma Olomouc 34%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 52%, Sigma Olomouc 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.14 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.