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Poisson model favours Pardubice (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Karviná face Pardubice.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Karviná and Pardubice meet at Town Stadium Karvina in Czech Liga, Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.

Karviná at Town Stadium Karvina this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Pardubice have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Pardubice's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pardubice are 1.20 PPG clear of Karviná in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 8 meetings, Pardubice have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Karviná's 2, with 0 draws in the mix.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Pardubice winning.

It is worth noting that Pardubice have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 61% versus Pardubice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 66% | Pardubice 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.12 xG and Pardubice 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.906 / defence 1.300 | Pardubice attack 1.058 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Data: 60 Karviná games / 60 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Karviná 25% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 49%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Pardubice 2.04. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 60% | Pardubice 50% BTTS from recent games.

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