Karviná 1-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Karviná at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Městský Stadión plays host to Karviná versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 17 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Karviná's home record at Městský Stadión: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Bohemians 1905 (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Karviná's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Karviná lead 1W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Karviná winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 49% versus Bohemians 1905 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 56% | Bohemians 1905 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.12 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.867 / defence 1.296 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.799 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.016. Data: 33 Karviná games / 34 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Karviná 37% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 34%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 1905 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

Bohemians 1905 lead the H2H ledger, but Karviná carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Karviná 50% | Bohemians 1905 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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