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Shock result as Zlin defy the odds to beat Karviná 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Karviná 0-1 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.61 xG and Zlin 1.37 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Karviná fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.11 / defence 0.92 against Zlin attack 1.09 / defence 1.09, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 42% | Draw 26% | Zlin 32%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Zlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 50%, Zlin 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Karviná arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. Form was overturned, with Zlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Karviná managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Zlin managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.