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Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat Sparta Praha 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Sparta Praha 2-1 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.13 xG and Sparta Praha 1.41 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.15 / defence 1.04 against Sparta Praha attack 1.11 / defence 0.84, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 27% | Draw 34% | Sparta Praha 40%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Karviná win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 67%, Sparta Praha 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Karviná winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights