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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Karviná 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Karviná 2-3 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.04 xG and Sparta Praha 1.30 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Sparta Praha attack 1.19 / defence 0.80, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 30% | Draw 28% | Sparta Praha 42%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 57%, Sparta Praha 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights