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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Karviná cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Slovan Liberec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Slovan Liberec 3-1 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.03 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.49 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.84 / defence 1.24 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.00 / defence 0.87, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 25% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 46%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Karviná win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 64%, Slovan Liberec 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karviná 1.25 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights