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Slovácko cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Karviná.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovácko beat Karviná 0-2 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.30 xG and Slovácko 0.87 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Slovácko outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.98 / defence 1.23 against Slovácko attack 0.64 / defence 1.00, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 45% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 24%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Slovácko win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 66%, Slovácko 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Slovácko's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karviná 1.33 PPG, Slovácko 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights