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Karviná cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slovácko.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Slovácko 2-0 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.91 xG and Slovácko 1.43 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slovácko landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Slovácko attack 1.10 / defence 1.34, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 48% | Draw 23% | Slovácko 28%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 58%, Slovácko 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Slovácko's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karviná 1.04 PPG, Slovácko 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights