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Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Karviná.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Karviná 0-4 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.10 xG and Slavia Praha 1.20 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.13 / defence 0.96 against Slavia Praha attack 1.06 / defence 0.71, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 32% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 37%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 57%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights