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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Karviná and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 12, as Karviná and Sigma Olomouc drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.35 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.08 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.14 / defence 1.08 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 40% | Draw 32% | Sigma Olomouc 27%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 67%, Sigma Olomouc 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karviná 1.30 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights