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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plzen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Karviná.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Karviná 0-2 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.73 xG and Plzen 1.50 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.11 / defence 1.03 against Plzen attack 1.13 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 43% | Draw 23% | Plzen 34%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 69%, Plzen 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Plzen's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights