Karviná 0-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 75% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Karviná welcome Plzen to Městský Stadión in Czech Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Karviná stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Karviná's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Plzen have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Plzen's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Karviná have won 1, Plzen 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Karviná 1–0 Plzen — a Karviná win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Karviná in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 54% versus Plzen 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Karviná 62% | Plzen 69%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Karviná surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Plzen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 0.87 xG and Plzen 2.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.684 / defence 1.515 | Plzen attack 1.412 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.240. Karviná's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Plzen have an above-average attack rating of 1.412, which lifts their away xG to 2.65. Karviná's defence rating of 1.515 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Plzen's projected output up. Data: built from Karviná's last 26 games and Plzen's last 56.
Result probabilities: Karviná 10% | Draw 15% | Plzen 75%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 10.32 | Draw 6.51 | Plzen 1.33. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (75%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Karviná's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Karviná 40% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 10% | Draw 15% | Plzen 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Karviná 0.87 / Plzen 2.65 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.684 / def 1.515 | Plzen attack 1.412 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Plzen (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
2.65
Plzen xG
54%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karviná vs Plzen FAQs
What time does Karviná vs Plzen kick off?
Karviná vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Plzen?
Karviná 0 - 0 Plzen.
Where is Karviná vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Plzen part of?
Karviná vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 10% chance of winning, Plzen a 75% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Karviná and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Karviná vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.68x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 2.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Karviná's last 26 games and Plzen's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (9.1%), 1-2 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
10%
10.32
15%
6.51
75%
1.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Karviná xG
Total xG
3.53
2.65
Plzen xG
10.32
10%
Home win
6.51
15%
Draw
1.33
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
7%
14.21
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
1%
146.65
31%
3.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 3.2 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karviná vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Karviná and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Karviná and 2.65 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Plzen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná's recent record stands at 5W 4D 17L from 26 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 17W 3D 6L across 26 games — 2.08 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 1.35 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Karviná heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 4W 1D 8L from their last 13 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plzen's away record stands at 9W 1D 3L across their last 13 away games, a 2.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.38 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen in 65%.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Plzen
Blended
Karviná (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karviná
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Karviná vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are Karviná and Plzen in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 5W 4D 17L in their last 26 games (0.73 PPG), while Plzen have gone 17W 3D 6L in their last 26 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.00 PPG; Plzen away: 2.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Plzen have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Aug 2024, when Plzen won Plzen 5-0 Karviná.
Karviná's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Karviná
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Karviná vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Plzen?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Karviná have won 1, Plzen have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Karviná and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2026: Karviná 0-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 54%, Plzen 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Karviná and 69% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karviná have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karviná vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karviná and Plzen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Karviná's games and 69% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Karviná and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Karviná's matches and 69% of Plzen's.
Do Karviná and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Karviná's recent matches and 92% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Karviná's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná and Plzen finished level at 0-0 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 0.87 xG and Plzen 2.65 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Karviná fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Plzen landed 2.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.68 / defence 1.51 against Plzen attack 1.41 / defence 0.82, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 10% | Draw 15% | Plzen 75%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 62%, Plzen 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.