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Karviná cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mlada Boleslav.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Mlada Boleslav 3-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.35 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.33 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.16 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 36% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 35%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 56%, Mlada Boleslav 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karviná 1.08 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights