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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Karviná edge out Hradec Králové 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Hradec Králové 4-3 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.65 xG and Hradec Králové 1.42 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against Hradec Králové attack 1.14 / defence 1.11, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 41% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 31%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 68%, Hradec Králové 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karviná 1.34 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights