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Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Karviná 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Karviná 1-2 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.01 xG and FK Jablonec 1.26 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.09 / defence 1.03 against FK Jablonec attack 1.00 / defence 0.67, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 29% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 42%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 65%, FK Jablonec 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights