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Karviná cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dukla Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Dukla Praha 2-0 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.43 xG and Dukla Praha 1.26 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Dukla Praha attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 41% | Draw 26% | Dukla Praha 33%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 62%, Dukla Praha 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karviná 1.28 PPG, Dukla Praha 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights