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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Karviná 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat Karviná 1-2 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.50 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.89 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 51% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 22%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 61%, Bohemians 1905 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karviná 1.39 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights