Hradec Králové 1-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (62%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Hradec Králové face České Budějovice.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hradec Králové welcome České Budějovice to Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 30 March 2025 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hradec Králové have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, České Budějovice stand at 0W 1D 9L — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 3.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
České Budějovice away from home: 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Hradec Králové are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Hradec Králové: 6 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for České Budějovice, with 1 draw.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Hradec Králové 2–0 České Budějovice — a Hradec Králové win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Hradec Králové and goals — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 45% versus České Budějovice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 40% | České Budějovice 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 2.02 xG and České Budějovice 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.936 / defence 0.922 | České Budějovice attack 0.841 / defence 1.552. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.148. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.552 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hradec Králové's projected output up. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 55 games and České Budějovice's last 56.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 62% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 14%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.61 | Draw 4.28 | České Budějovice 6.96. The model has a clear lean to Hradec Králové (62%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and České Budějovice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 50% (last 10 home games) | České Budějovice 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 62% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Hradec Králové 2.02 / České Budějovice 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.936 / def 0.922 | České Budějovice attack 0.841 / def 1.552 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.89
České Budějovice xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice FAQs
What time does Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Hradec Králové 1 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice part of?
Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 62% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hradec Králové and České Budějovice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hradec Králové's last 55 games and České Budějovice's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
62%
1.61
23%
4.28
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.91
0.89
České Budějovice xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
2%
52.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.89 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 17D 21L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 0.62 PPG from 60 outings (8W 13D 39L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Hradec Králové carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 13W 9D 7L across their last 29 home games, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.24 points per game from their last 29 away games (0W 7D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 0.90 scored and 2.18 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
Hradec Králové (Home) vs České Budějovice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hradec Králové
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České Budějovice
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❓ Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice Form FAQs
What form are Hradec Králové and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 22W 17D 21L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 8W 13D 39L in their last 60 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or České Budějovice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.66 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.24 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or České Budějovice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, České Budějovice in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 30 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Hradec Králové have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Aug 2023, when Hradec Králové won Hradec Králové 5-1 České Budějovice.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
0
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and České Budějovice?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hradec Králové have won 7, České Budějovice have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and České Budějovice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 March 2025: Hradec Králové 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and České Budějovice?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 52%, České Budějovice 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hradec Králové) and 66% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; České Budějovice in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hradec Králové and České Budějovice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Hradec Králové's games and 59% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hradec Králové and České Budějovice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 66% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and České Budějovice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 76% of České Budějovice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out České Budějovice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat České Budějovice 1-0 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 2.02 xG and České Budějovice 0.89 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové fell 1.0 short of their projected output. České Budějovice landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against České Budějovice attack 0.84 / defence 1.55, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 62% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 14%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 40%, České Budějovice 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
České Budějovice's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.62. Form held, and they took the win. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.