🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Zbrojovka Brno fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Hradec Králové and Zbrojovka Brno meet at FINEP Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Hradec Králové have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hradec Králové haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at FINEP Arena, Hradec Králové have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at FINEP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hradec Králové lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Hradec Králové winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.63 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.010 / defence 0.900 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Hradec Králové games / 0 Zbrojovka Brno games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 53% | Draw 26% | Zbrojovka Brno 21%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Zbrojovka Brno 4.76. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights