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Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hradec Králové face Teplice.

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Match Analysis

Hradec Králové host Teplice at FINEP Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hradec Králové haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Hradec Králové at FINEP Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at FINEP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Teplice — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Teplice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Teplice's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Hradec Králové have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

Hradec Králové hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 7 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Teplice, with 1 draws in between.

The last 10 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Hradec Králové winning.

The historical record gives Hradec Králové a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Hradec Králové trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Teplice trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 51% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 49% | Teplice 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.43 xG and Teplice 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.010 / defence 0.899 | Teplice attack 0.994 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Hradec Králové games / 30 Teplice games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 28% | Teplice 28%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Teplice 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 30% | Teplice 60%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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