🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Hradec Králové welcome Sparta Praha to FINEP Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hradec Králové haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at FINEP Arena, Hradec Králové have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at FINEP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Sparta Praha — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sparta Praha haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Hradec Králové) versus 2.20 (Sparta Praha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Hradec Králové's 30% rate and Sparta Praha's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

Head to Head

Sparta Praha have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 10 encounters against Hradec Králové's 1 victories.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Sparta Praha winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 50% versus Sparta Praha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 47% | Sparta Praha 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.30 xG and Sparta Praha 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.010 / defence 0.899 | Sparta Praha attack 0.994 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Hradec Králové games / 30 Sparta Praha games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 41% | Draw 29% | Sparta Praha 30%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Sparta Praha 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 30% | Sparta Praha 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights