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Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hradec Králové face Sigma Olomouc.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Hradec Králové welcome Sigma Olomouc to FINEP Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Hradec Králové — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hradec Králové haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Hradec Králové's home record at FINEP Arena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at FINEP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sigma Olomouc haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Hradec Králové carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Hradec Králové have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 10 past contests while Sigma Olomouc have managed just 2 wins.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Sigma Olomouc winning.

The historical record gives Hradec Králové a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 50% versus Sigma Olomouc 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 47% | Sigma Olomouc 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.50 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.010 / defence 0.900 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.016 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Hradec Králové games / 30 Sigma Olomouc games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 27%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Sigma Olomouc 3.70. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 30% | Sigma Olomouc 70%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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