Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host FK Jablonec at FINEP Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové at FINEP Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at FINEP Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, FK Jablonec have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.70 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 2, FK Jablonec 4, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 51% versus FK Jablonec 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 49% | FK Jablonec 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.47 xG and FK Jablonec 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.110 / defence 0.902 | FK Jablonec attack 0.880 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.288. Data: 35 Hradec Králové games / 35 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 26%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | FK Jablonec 3.85. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | FK Jablonec 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: FINEP Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Hradec Králové 1.47 / FK Jablonec 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.110 / def 0.902 | FK Jablonec attack 0.880 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.02
FK Jablonec xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at FINEP Arena.
Where is Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at FINEP Arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec part of?
Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 47% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec?
Record (10 meetings): Hradec Králové 2W | Draws 4 | FK Jablonec 4W.
What form are Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 1.11x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.65
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.49
1.02
FK Jablonec xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
6%
16.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.02 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 19W 9D 13L from 41 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 14L across 41 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.61 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 13W 4D 3L from 20 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 9W 1D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.27 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 19W 9D 13L in their last 41 games (1.61 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 19W 8D 14L in their last 41 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or FK Jablonec away?
Hradec Králové's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.15 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when FK Jablonec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hradec Králové
4
Draws
4
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, FK Jablonec 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Hradec Králové) and 35% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 40%; FK Jablonec in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 25% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 35% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.