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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec encounter.

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Match Analysis

Hradec Králové host FK Jablonec at Malsovicka arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hradec Králové at Malsovicka arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Malsovicka arena.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, FK Jablonec have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.80 PPG, FK Jablonec 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

FK Jablonec have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 8 encounters against Hradec Králové's 1 victories.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with FK Jablonec winning.

It is worth noting that FK Jablonec have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 44% versus FK Jablonec 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 46% | FK Jablonec 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.03 xG and FK Jablonec 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.118 / defence 0.845 | FK Jablonec attack 1.027 / defence 0.688. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.289. FK Jablonec's defence strength of 0.688 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Hradec Králové games / 46 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 31% | Draw 34% | FK Jablonec 35%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | FK Jablonec 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 40% | FK Jablonec 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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