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Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hradec Králové face Dukla Praha.

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Analysis

Dukla Praha make the trip to Malsovicka arena to face Hradec Králové in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Hradec Králové have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hradec Králové's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Malsovicka arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Malsovicka arena.

Dukla Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Dukla Praha have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Hradec Králové's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hradec Králové lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Dukla Praha half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 43% versus Dukla Praha 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 43% | Dukla Praha 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.61 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.066 / defence 0.848 | Dukla Praha attack 0.762 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.202. Data: 50 Hradec Králové games / 50 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 57% | Draw 26% | Dukla Praha 17%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Dukla Praha 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Hradec Králové (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Dukla Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.

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