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Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dukla Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Dukla Praha 3-0 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.61 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.07 / defence 0.85 against Dukla Praha attack 0.76 / defence 1.07, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 57% | Draw 26% | Dukla Praha 17%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 43%, Dukla Praha 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights