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Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hradec Králové face Bohemians 1905.

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Match Analysis

Hradec Králové host Bohemians 1905 at FINEP Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hradec Králové haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Hradec Králové at FINEP Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at FINEP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bohemians 1905 haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Hradec Králové are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 5, Bohemians 1905 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Hradec Králové winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Hradec Králové trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Bohemians 1905 trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 50% versus Bohemians 1905 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 47% | Bohemians 1905 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.37 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.010 / defence 0.900 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.943 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Hradec Králové games / 30 Bohemians 1905 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 27%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 1905 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 30% | Bohemians 1905 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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