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Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hradec Králové face Teplice.

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Match Analysis

Hradec Králové host Teplice at Malsovicka arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hradec Králové at Malsovicka arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Teplice — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Hradec Králové have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

Hradec Králové hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 2 for Teplice, with 0 draws in between.

The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Teplice winning.

The historical record gives Hradec Králové a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Hradec Králové trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Teplice trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 44% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 44% | Teplice 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.55 xG and Teplice 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.080 / defence 1.072 | Teplice attack 0.984 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.150. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Hradec Králové games / 42 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 32% | Teplice 26%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Teplice 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.

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