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Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Sparta Praha 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Sparta Praha 2-1 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 0.96 xG and Sparta Praha 1.37 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.86 / defence 0.92 against Sparta Praha attack 1.21 / defence 0.80, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 26% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 46%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 39%, Sparta Praha 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.34. Form was overturned, with Hradec Králové winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights