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Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Slovan Liberec 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Slovan Liberec 1-0 at Malsovicka arena, Championship Group - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.42 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.99 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.02 / defence 0.79 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 25%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 44%, Slovan Liberec 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.50 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights