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Shock result as Slovan Liberec defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Hradec Králové 2-3 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.28 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.13 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.97 / defence 0.86 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 38% | Draw 31% | Slovan Liberec 31%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Slovan Liberec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 44%, Slovan Liberec 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.41 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights