Hradec Králové 1-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Slovan Liberec travel to Malšovická Aréna to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 November 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Malšovická Aréna this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Malšovická Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovan Liberec have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.10 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 1, Slovan Liberec 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2023, ended 3–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Slovan Liberec trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 50% versus Slovan Liberec 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 50% | Slovan Liberec 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.77 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.972 / defence 1.033 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.958 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.162. Data: 44 Hradec Králové games / 44 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 52% | Draw 23% | Slovan Liberec 25%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Slovan Liberec 4.00. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Slovan Liberec 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 52% | Draw 23% | Slovan Liberec 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Hradec Králové 1.77 / Slovan Liberec 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.972 / def 1.033 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.958 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Slovan Liberec xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Hradec Králové 1 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 52% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec?
Record (3 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 0 | Slovan Liberec 2W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
52%
1.93
23%
4.27
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.92
1.15
Slovan Liberec xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
4%
23.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.15 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 17W 9D 22L from 48 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 19L across 48 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.25 PPG, Slovan Liberec on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 10W 2D 11L from 23 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 6W 7D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.48 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovan Liberec in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 17W 9D 22L in their last 48 games (1.25 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 16W 13D 19L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.39 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hradec Králové have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
4
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 1-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 48%, Slovan Liberec 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hradec Králové) and 61% (Slovan Liberec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Hradec Králové have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Hradec Králové's games and 65% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Hradec Králové's matches and 61% of Slovan Liberec's.
Do Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 15, as Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.77 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.15 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.96 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 52% | Draw 23% | Slovan Liberec 25%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 50%, Slovan Liberec 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.25 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.