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Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Slovácko.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Slovácko 4-0 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.08 xG and Slovácko 0.67 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Slovácko attack 0.59 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 41% | Draw 40% | Slovácko 19%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 44%, Slovácko 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Slovácko's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights