Hradec Králové 2-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Hradec Králové welcome Pardubice to Lokotrans Aréna. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 outings — a 1.29 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 0L across 3 games at Lokotrans Aréna this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 1W 3D 3L from 7 Czech Liga matches — 0.86 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.71 per game and conceding 1.86. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.86 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.29 PPG (Hradec Králové) versus 0.86 (Pardubice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hradec Králové register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Pardubice in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games.
Pardubice in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hradec Králové 43% and Pardubice 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 14% | Pardubice 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.50 xG and Pardubice 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.817 / defence 0.974 | Pardubice attack 0.893 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.266. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.365 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Hradec Králové games / 7 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 28%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Pardubice 3.57. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 67% | Pardubice 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Hradec Králové 1.50 / Pardubice 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.817 / def 0.974 | Pardubice attack 0.893 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Pardubice xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Pardubice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Pardubice kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Hradec Králové 2 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice part of?
Hradec Králové vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 46% chance of winning, Pardubice a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hradec Králové and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Pardubice in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.86 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (0.82) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
46%
2.15
26%
3.88
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.60
1.10
Pardubice xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
6%
16.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.10 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 2W 3D 2L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pardubice's form line: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Hradec Králové are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pardubice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.71 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Pardubice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.67 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Hradec Králové won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 3, Pardubice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hradec Králové at 67%, Pardubice at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Hradec Králové) and 100% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Hradec Králové's games and 100% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 100% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Pardubice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Pardubice 2-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.50 xG and Pardubice 1.10 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against Pardubice attack 0.89 / defence 1.36, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 28%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 14%, Pardubice 86%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.