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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hradec Králové and Pardubice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové and Pardubice finished level at 1-1 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.46 xG and Pardubice 1.18 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.90 / defence 1.03 against Pardubice attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 29%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 40%, Pardubice 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Pardubice's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights