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Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Pardubice 3-0 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.21 xG and Pardubice 0.83 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.82 / defence 0.86 against Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 32% | Pardubice 24%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 37%, Pardubice 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Pardubice's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.37 PPG, Pardubice 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights