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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 1-1 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.87 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.90 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.19 / defence 0.77 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.95 / defence 1.15, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 60% | Draw 23% | Mlada Boleslav 17%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 44%, Mlada Boleslav 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.44 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights