Hradec Králové 1-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Karviná at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hradec Králové — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 4D 0L this season (7 games, 1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Karviná have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 0W 1D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hradec Králové, 0 for Karviná and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Karviná in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hradec Králové 57% and Karviná 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 50% | Karviná 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.61 xG and Karviná 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.906 / defence 0.953 | Karviná attack 0.593 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.316. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Hradec Králové games / 14 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 58% | Draw 25% | Karviná 17%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Karviná 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Hradec Králové (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 57% | Karviná 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 58% | Draw 25% | Karviná 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 42% | xG Hradec Králové 1.61 / Karviná 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.906 / def 0.953 | Karviná attack 0.593 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Karviná xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Karviná kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Hradec Králové 1 - 0 Karviná.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Karviná part of?
Hradec Králové vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 58% chance of winning, Karviná a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hradec Králové and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
Record (1 meetings): Hradec Králové 0W | Draws 1 | Karviná 0W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Karviná in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Karviná (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.91x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.04
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.36
0.74
Karviná xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
3%
29.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.4 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.74 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 5D 4L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 0.36 PPG from 14 outings (0W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 3W 3D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.17 points per game from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.00 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Karviná in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 games (1.43 PPG), while Karviná have gone 0W 5D 9L in their last 14 (0.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Karviná away?
Hradec Králové's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.00 PPG; Karviná away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Karviná runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karviná go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Hradec Králové won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Karviná have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Karviná 4-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, Karviná 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Hradec Králové and 33% for Karviná.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Karviná in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 33% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 33% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Karviná tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Karviná in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Karviná 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Karviná 1-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.61 xG and Karviná 0.74 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against Karviná attack 0.59 / defence 1.27, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 58% | Draw 25% | Karviná 17%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 50%, Karviná 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Karviná's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.