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Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Hradec Králové 1-2 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.45 xG and Karviná 1.35 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Karviná attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 40% | Draw 25% | Karviná 35%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Karviná win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 42%, Karviná 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Karviná's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.42 PPG, Karviná 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights