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Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Karviná 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Karviná 1-0 at Malšovická Aréna, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.50 xG and Karviná 1.31 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Karviná landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.85 / defence 0.92 against Karviná attack 1.18 / defence 1.30, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 25% | Karviná 33%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 40%, Karviná 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Karviná's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.37 PPG, Karviná 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights