🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Hradec Králové and Karviná share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 25, as Hradec Králové and Karviná drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 2.26 xG and Karviná 1.07 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against Karviná attack 1.00 / defence 1.53, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 63% | Draw 21% | Karviná 16%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 40%, Karviná 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Karviná's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.36 PPG, Karviná 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights