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Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FK Jablonec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat FK Jablonec 2-0 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.03 xG and FK Jablonec 1.12 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.12 / defence 0.84 against FK Jablonec attack 1.03 / defence 0.69, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 31% | Draw 34% | FK Jablonec 35%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 46%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with Hradec Králové winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights