Hradec Králové 2-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 27 as Hradec Králové welcome České Budějovice to Lokotrans Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, České Budějovice stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.10 PPG, České Budějovice 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hradec Králové, 0 for České Budějovice and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 52% versus České Budějovice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 55% | České Budějovice 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.41 xG and České Budějovice 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.687 / defence 1.178 | České Budějovice attack 0.854 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.297. Hradec Králové's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Hradec Králové games / 56 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 27% | České Budějovice 34%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | České Budějovice 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 50% | České Budějovice 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 27% | České Budějovice 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Hradec Králové 1.41 / České Budějovice 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.687 / def 1.178 | České Budějovice attack 0.854 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.30
České Budějovice xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Hradec Králové 2 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice part of?
Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 39% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hradec Králové and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and České Budějovice?
Record (3 meetings): Hradec Králové 2W | Draws 1 | České Budějovice 0W.
What form are Hradec Králové and České Budějovice in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
39%
2.57
27%
3.70
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.72
1.30
České Budějovice xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
8%
12.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.30 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 58 games, going 20W 15D 23L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.10 PPG from 58 outings (17W 13D 28L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.29 PPG, České Budějovice on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 11W 7D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.71 points per game from 28 outings (4W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.16 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 20W 15D 23L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 17W 13D 28L in their last 58 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or České Budějovice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.43 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and České Budějovice runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hradec Králové have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2023, when Hradec Králové won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
0
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and České Budějovice?
From 8 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 7, České Budějovice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and České Budějovice?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, České Budějovice 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Hradec Králové) and 61% (České Budějovice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; České Budějovice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 57% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Hradec Králové's matches and 61% of České Budějovice's.
Do Hradec Králové and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out České Budějovice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat České Budějovice 2-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.41 xG and České Budějovice 1.30 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.69 / defence 1.18 against České Budějovice attack 0.85 / defence 1.33, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 27% | České Budějovice 34%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 55%, České Budějovice 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.29 PPG, České Budějovice 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.