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Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out České Budějovice 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat České Budějovice 1-0 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 2.02 xG and České Budějovice 0.89 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové fell 1.0 short of their projected output. České Budějovice landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against České Budějovice attack 0.84 / defence 1.55, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 62% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 14%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 40%, České Budějovice 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

České Budějovice's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.62. Form held, and they took the win. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights