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Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Baník Ostrava 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Baník Ostrava 1-0 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.45 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.94 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.87 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 23%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 42%, Baník Ostrava 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.41 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights